Australia’s tourism industry faces a fractured post-lockdown outlook
© Mark Bowyer - Sydney’s COVID crisis is deepening - Australia’s borders are hardening
Australian tourism businesses may face fragmented borders as the COVID crisis moves towards its second anniversary and tensions rise between COVID-zero States, NSW and the Commonwealth.
As the COVID pandemic charges towards its grim second anniversary, and tourism tentatively reopens in many parts of the world, the outlook for most of Australia's tourism industry is uncertain.
Australia’s federation is fragmenting. Contrast Western Australia and New South Wales. Business is booming in zero-COVID and quick-to-lockdown WA. Tourism businesses are being smashed in slow-to-lockdown New South Wales as we head in to the 9th week of lockdown, with soaring case numbers and tightening restrictions.
Check our video on Australia’s complicated tourism future.
There is a real risk that New South Wales’ policy failure will take down New Zealand, Victoria and the ACT. Other states will battle to keep the Delta variant at bay as the New South Wales outbreak spreads.
The long nightmare of tourism businesses - especially those focused on international markets, drags on.
The Prime Minister is pushing states to agree to the plan to open when vaccination rates reach 80% nationally. Western Australia and others say the situation in New South Wales may change previous commitments.
Last week, WA Premier Mark McGowan, announced the harshest restrictions of the entire pandemic on travellers from New South Wales. It will likely be a long time before normal travel resumes between these states.
The impact of COVID in four of Australia's six states has been wildly different to the impact in New South Wales and Victoria - our two biggest states.
Some tourism businesses in the zero-COVID states, especially WA, have enjoyed record turnover.
The Project gives some deeper background
Western Australian Museum - gonna be a while before Perth’s new museum sees big crowds from Sydney. © Mark Bowyer
New South Wales and Victoria have been less fortunate. Victoria's prospects of containing its NSW-inspired outbreak are looking doubtful.
Meanwhile, New South Wales has surrendered to the idea that COVID will not be eliminated. Premier Berejiklian, with the support of the Prime Minister and Treasurer, seems to be demanding other states follow her dubious lead. This will put other states in a tricky position.
Mark McGowan is not leaving much doubt about the direction he will take WA. When New South Wales feels ready to open up, WA (assuming it's still Delta-free) will be balancing the upside of opening against the lost lives, sickness, hospital strain and economic harm an opening will entail - even with high rates of vaccination. WA's large and vulnerable Indigenous population will further complicate McGowan's decision. Queensland, Tasmania and South Australia will end up juggling similar issues.
It's possible to conceive of a scenario where residents of COVID-normalised NSW (and possibly Victoria) are closed out of zero-COVID states for a protracted period.
Should New South Wales surrender to the current outbreak when vaccination targets are met, and relax restrictions, it may be positioned to tentatively open to some other COVID normalised countries (and states if there are any), while zero-COVID states remain closed to the world and NSW.
It’s a nightmare scenario for the tourism industry - a secession in reverse where NSW (and possibly Victoria thanks to NSW) is isolated from the rest of the Commonwealth.
It’s too early to speculate on that divided scenario. But tensions between zero-COVID premiers, the PM and Gladys Berejiklian are growing.
The New South Wales Premier, who, along with the PM, owns this carnage, insists that there is no such thing as zero COVID. That may be true in a global sense. But the evidence is in. States or countries that can hold the line against COVID until vaccination rates are high and treatments improve, will be saving lives and economies. The longer you hold out, the better the health of your people and your economy.
China has again reminded us of this as it looks to have vanquished a recent Delta outbreak across multiple cities.
Until the recent New South Wales debacle, all Australian states accepted this idea. There are thousands of Australians alive today because the first COVID wave in 2020 was contained.
The NSW outbreak has claimed more than 70 lives to date, will leave thousands with “long COVID” and is causing terrible stress in the hospital system. The delayed lockdown is having wider impacts on community health and well-being.
The experience around the world confirms that high vaccination rates significantly reduce death and serious illness. But vaccination does not stop transmission, deaths and illness - especially among the unvaccinated. COVID will still be a killer when Australia belatedly achieves its vaccination targets. The UK has a high vaccination rate and is still recording more than 100 deaths per day.
© Mark Bowyer New South Wales opted out of an unofficial lockdown orthodoxy adopted by other states. Now borders are hardening.
With most of his economy firing on all cylinders, and few days lost to lockdown since the start of the pandemic, WA's Mark McGowan won't be easily persuaded by team Berjiklian and Morrison that he should risk opening up his state to COVID.
Tourism businesses, especially those in long-suffering NSW and Victoria, will need to think about a complicated situation across the country - no matter how successful NSW and Victoria are in reversing the current crisis.
Australia may even be divided between COVID and zero-COVID bubbles - domestically and internationally.
Our sluggish vaccination rollout means that we are able to learn from a world that is well ahead of us in dealing with post-vaccination COVID issues. If the coming weeks bring good news from abroad in jurisdictions with high vaccination rates, our zero-COVID states may be more ready to open up.
Otherwise the tourism industry may face the nightmare of a nation fragmented well in to 2022.